Daily

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Important dates:

  • (purple dashed lines) May 14: Stay-at-Home reversed; May 25: Memorial Day; July 4: Independence Day

  • (blue dashed lines) March 25: Stay-at-Home order; Aug 1: WI mask mandate

Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)

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Active

Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.

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Estimated Active, split by Age group:

  • First plot is conservative (10-day total) estimate
  • Second plot is 14-day total used in MN Safe-Learning plan

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By the Numbers

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Definitions

Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table

Eau Claire

Eau Claire cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
September 01 2020 825 17771 6 119 152
September 02 2020 838 18306 6 116 159
September 03 2020 860 18448 6 132 173
September 04 2020 882 18487 6 145 183
September 05 2020 905 18880 6 157 199
September 06 2020 941 18958 6 173 219
September 07 2020 977 19101 6 197 249
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 2 0.3 1.5% 3 0.03% 5 0.04%
10-19 12 6.9 24.9% 49 0.36% 55 0.4%
20-29 17 14.0 56.3% 111 0.53% 140 0.67%
30-39 3 0.9 4.1% 8 0.06% 13 0.1%
40-49 2 1.4 7.1% 14 0.13% 14 0.13%
50-59 0 0.6 2% 4 0.03% 10 0.08%
60-69 0 0.6 2% 4 0.03% 4 0.03%
70+ 0 0.6 2% 4 0.04% 8 0.08%
All ages 36 25.1 100% 197 0.19% 249 0.24%

Chippewa

Chippewa cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
September 01 2020 350 12194 0 57 69
September 02 2020 354 12230 0 53 70
September 03 2020 364 12288 0 62 76
September 04 2020 371 12430 0 67 78
September 05 2020 376 12489 0 64 83
September 06 2020 378 12547 0 55 77
September 07 2020 382 12585 0 51 80

Barron

Barron cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
September 01 2020 372 7479 3 17 34
September 02 2020 375 7504 3 15 30
September 03 2020 381 7547 3 21 33
September 04 2020 382 7578 3 21 33
September 05 2020 385 7652 3 21 30
September 06 2020 388 7695 3 23 28
September 07 2020 392 7695 3 23 32

Dane

Dane cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
September 01 2020 5520 164550 40 467 630
September 02 2020 5564 165861 40 476 640
September 03 2020 5639 166901 40 522 684
September 04 2020 5799 167619 40 638 801
September 05 2020 5961 168233 40 752 908
September 06 2020 6118 169345 40 824 1030
September 07 2020 6208 170307 40 878 1091
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 1 1.7 1.8% 16 0.03% 21 0.03%
10-19 50 58.3 50.3% 442 0.62% 480 0.68%
20-29 26 32.6 30% 263 0.25% 339 0.33%
30-39 8 6.9 6.5% 57 0.07% 89 0.12%
40-49 0 4.3 4.1% 36 0.05% 50 0.08%
50-59 3 3.4 3.6% 32 0.05% 56 0.09%
60-69 1 2.4 2.1% 18 0.03% 31 0.06%
70+ 1 1.7 1.6% 14 0.03% 25 0.05%
All ages 90 111.3 100% 878 0.16% 1091 0.2%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
September 01 2020 76584 1183717 1130 6575 9754
September 02 2020 77129 1191548 1142 6667 9636
September 03 2020 77856 1199999 1146 7002 9623
September 04 2020 79354 1210203 1153 7862 10295
September 05 2020 80300 1217278 1168 8040 10291
September 06 2020 81193 1221894 1168 8055 10731
September 07 2020 81760 1226793 1168 7779 10906
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 13 23.9 2.6% 203 0.03% 312 0.05%
10-19 106 149.3 16% 1247 0.16% 1556 0.21%
20-29 158 228.9 25.6% 1992 0.26% 2816 0.37%
30-39 66 113.1 13.3% 1036 0.14% 1500 0.2%
40-49 59 106.3 12.6% 977 0.14% 1372 0.2%
50-59 69 120.6 13.7% 1063 0.13% 1524 0.19%
60-69 57 75.7 9.2% 714 0.09% 1028 0.14%
70+ 39 61.9 7% 547 0.09% 798 0.12%
All ages 567 879.6 100% 7779 0.13% 10906 0.19%

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Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.

Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):

  • 2wk: Two-week case total (most recent 14 days), rate per 10K of county population
  • 2wk20s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 20-29 population; since over 50% of students on campus are in early 20s
  • daily7: Daily new-case running average (average over 7 days)
  • posratedaily7 (as a percent): Daily positive-test rate, running average (average over 7 days)

and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:

Criteria 2wk Criteria 2wk20s Criteria daily7 Suggestion
> 25 > 30 urge extra caution
> 28 > 45* decreasing consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH
> 28 > 45* steady to increasing strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH.
> 30 > 50 decreasing ’’ ’’ ’’
> 30 > 50 steady to increasing based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable

*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.

Eau Claire

Eau Claire 2wk Eau Claire 2wk20s Eau Claire current daily7 Eau Claire past daily7 Eau Claire posratedaily7
23.8 66.9 25.1 11.6 10%

Important Resources:

Chippewa

Chippewa 2wk Chippewa current daily7 Chippewa past daily7 Chippewa posratedaily7
12.4 5 5 6.6%

Barron

Barron 2wk Barron current daily7 Barron past daily7 Barron posratedaily7
7.5 3.1 2.4 8.1%

Dane

Dane 2wk Dane 2wk20s Dane current daily7 Dane past daily7 Dane posratedaily7
20 32.6 111.3 48.4 10%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin 2wk Wisconsin 2wk20s Wisconsin current daily7 Wisconsin past daily7 Wisconsin posratedaily7
18.7 36.6 879.6 700.7 10.2%

Important Resources:

Cumulative

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References

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Reliable Updated Visuals

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Modeling

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Predicting cumulative deaths in state

  • WI correpondence between Cumulative cases and deaths (at time lag)
    • Starting with late May, after daily tests regularly above 6000
[1] "The number of  cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 24 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.35 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-09-28 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 1249"

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